33 Philip Bowring, "A Comeback in the Pacific", New York Times, September 23, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/24/opinion/24iht-edbowring.html?_r=1.

34 Greg Torode, "How the US ambushed China in its backyard", South China Morning Post, July 25, 2010.

35 Amitav Acharya, "Asia in the New American Moment", PcNet, #49, October 14, 2010.

36 Christopher Freise, "By Invitation, Mostly: the International Politics of the US Security Presence, China, and the South China Sea", RSIS Working Papers, No. 247, August 28, 2012, http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/workingpapers/wp247.pdf.

37 No author, "Clinton tells Maehara Senkaku subject to Japan-U.S. security pact", Associate Press, September 23, 2010, http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9IDOG4O0.

38 Zhongqi Pan, "Standing Up to the Challenge: China's Approach to its Maritime Disputes", ISPI Analysis, no. 184, June 2013.

39 Robert A. Manning, "US counterbalancing China, not containing",  East Asia Forum, July 9, 2013, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/07/09/us-counterbalancing-china-not-containing/.

40 Henry A. Kissinger, "The Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations: Conflict Is a Choice, Not a Necessity", Foreign Affairs, March/April 2012.

41 Michael Yahuda, "China's New Assertiveness in the South China Sea", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 22, no. 81, May 2013, p. 446.

42 S. R. Joey Long, Simon Tay, Kumar Ramakrishna, Carlyle A. Thayer, Zheng Wang, "Round table: US Re-engagement in Asia", Asian Policy, no. 12, July 2011, p.11.

43 National Intelligence Council, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World", Washington DC, November 2008, www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html. 

44 Mark E. Manyin, Stephen Daggett, Ben Dolven, Susan V. Lawrence, Michael F. Martin, Ronald O'Rourke, and Bruce Vaughn, "Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration's 'Rebalancing' Toward Asia", Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service, March 28, 2013, p. 12.

45 Tim Huxley, "Response to PacNet #35-US 1, China 0," PacNet, #35R, June 12, 2012.

46 Yoichi Kato, "Interview/ Kurt Campbell: China should accept U.S. enduring leadership role in Asia", Asahi Shimbun, February 9, 2013.術語運用的改變，在一定程度上反映了奧巴馬政府在探索如何重新聚焦亞洲時的混亂。最初建議的“前沿部署外交”（forward-deployed diplomacy），由于被指責具有軍國主義色彩（特別是在敏感的中國看來）而被拋棄；隨后提出的“轉向亞洲”（the Asia pivot）則引起了美國的中東和歐洲盟友的抱怨，因為他們認為這意味著本地區(qū)被拋棄了。現(xiàn)在白宮傾向于使用“再平衡”（the rebalancing），而一些政策制定者則直截了當?shù)厥褂?ldquo;回歸亞洲”（return to Asia）的說法。Hannah Allam, "Obama is still searching for right tone in executing' Asia pivot'", McClatchy Newspapers, January 22, 2013, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/01/22/180696/obama-is-still-searching-for-right.html.

47 Dean Cheng, "Kerry's First Visit to Asia: Where Is the Pivot?", The Heritage Foundation Issue Brief, no.3902, April 9, 2013, http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2013/pdf/ib3902.pdf.

48 Shawn Brimley and Ely Ratner, "Smart Shift, A Response to 'The Problem with the Pivot' ", Foreign Affairs, 92:1, January/February 2013.

49 James B. Steinberg, "East Asia and the Pacific: Administration s Vision of the U.S.-China Relationship", Keynote Address at the Center for a New American Security Washington, DC, September 24, 2009.

50 Timothy Garton Ash, "Two ways for West to meet China", The Straits Times, November 20, 2009, http://www.straitstimes.com/Review/Others/STIStory_456690.html?sunwMethod=GET.

51 Satu Limaye, "Beyond choosing between China and the US", East Asia Forum, July 23, 2013, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/07/23/beyond-choosing-between-china-and-the-us/.

52 Michael McDevitt, "The Evolving Maritime Security Environment in East Asia: Implications for the US-Japan Alliance",  PacNet, #33, May 31, 2012.

53 Henry A. Kissinger, "The Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations: Conflict Is a Choice, Not a Necessity", Foreign Affairs, March/April 2012.

54 Philip Stephens, "Danger in Xi's rebuff to Obama", Financial Times, March 1, 2012, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50a2c246-6390-11e1-b85b-00144feabdc0.html.

55 Hugh White, "The end of American supremacy", East Asia forum, September 12th, 2010, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/09/12/the-end-of-american-supremacy/.

56 Li Jingtian, "Building on the Bottom Line", People's Daily, July 1, 2013, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2013-07/01/content_16694116.htm.

57 Carlyle A. Thayer, "Why China and the US won't go to war over the South China Sea", East Asia Forum, May 13th, 2013, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-south-china-sea/.

58 Ben Bland and Geoff Dyer, "US treads fine line over South China Sea", Financial Times, September 3, 2012, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e13ac9c4-f5e0-11e1-a6c2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25QlQJOne.

59 Gideon Rachman, "A gaffe-prone Japan is a danger to peace in Asia", Financial Times, August 12, 2013, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c4d9e34c-033a-11e3-9a46-00144feab7de.html.

60 崔天凱、龐含兆：“新時期中國外交全局中的中美關系---兼論中美共建新型大國關系”, 《中國國際戰(zhàn)略評論2012》, http://news.china.com.cn/txt/2012-07/20/content_25969559_3.htm。

61 Wang Yusheng, "Is it possible for China and the US to build a New Type of Great Power Relationship?", Foreign Affairs Journal, no. 1, 2013, p. 102.

62 Edward Friedman, "Building New Vital Mutual interests for a Better Future: A Rejoinder to Wang Jisi and Kenneth Lieberthal's 'Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust' ", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 22, no. 81, pp. 368-378.

63 David M. Lampton, "The United States and China in the Age of Obama: Looking Each Other Straight in the Eyes",  Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 18, no. 62, November 2009, p. 727.

64 Hillary Clinton, "Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace China Conference", March 7, 2012, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/03/185402.htm.

65 Speech by Vice President Xi Jinping at Welcoming Luncheon Hosted by Friendly Organizations in the United States, February 15, 2012 , http://www.chinausfocus.com/library/government-resources/chinese-resources/remarks/speech-by-vice-president-xi-jinping-at-welcoming-luncheon-hosted-by-friendly-organizations-in-the-united-states-february-15-2012/.

China and the United States Should Seek New Balance of World Power

Zhao Suisheng

Abstract: China's rise has forced the leaders in both Beijing and Washington to make a strategic response to their possible confrontation globally and particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. The Asia-Pacific region has become a test field for China and the United States to explore the possibility of building a new type of great-power relationship for the 21st century. Indeed, US-China competition could take their relationship into the pathway of rivalry in spite of the endorsement of the new type of great power relationship by leaders in both Beijing and Washington. Given the increasing interdependence between the two countries, any unilateral US attempts to contain China are likely to be sporadic at best. As a result, these two countries have to find a realist approach to work together and construct a regional order based on balance of power to avoid the so-called historic inevitability of the structural conflict between a rising power and incumbent superpower.

Keywords: China's rise, a new type of great power relations, strategic rebalance, balance of power

趙穗生.pdf

【作者簡介】

趙穗生，美國丹佛大學約瑟夫·科貝爾國際關系學院終身教授兼美中合作中心主任、哈佛大學費正清中心研究員、《當代中國》（英文）主編。

研究方向：中美關系、中國外交、中國政治。

主要著作：《權力的設計》（英文）、《東亞權爭》（英文）、《鄧小平時代的決策過程》（英文）、《轉型中的中美關系》（英文）等。